China’s Green Vehicle Revolution to reshuffle the cards for cobalt has been published exclusively on Seeking Alpha on Apr. 12, 2017. 

  • Green the keynote in Chinese 13th Five-Year Plan
  • China approves NMC battery technology for green car subsidies
  • Traditionally focused on the LFP chemistry (no cobalt), Chinese battery makers are quickly shifting towards cobalt-rich ternary batteries
  • Chinese companies have been recently gobbling up world supplies and securing access to the largest cobalt reserves in the world
  • For investors seeking to express a view on cobalt, I am thinking of several alternatives: stockpile in its physical form, early stage exploration, recycling companies, or play the disruptive technological card

Introductory words

Five million New Electric Vehicles (“NEVs”) on the road in China by 2020. That is the objective set by the largest clean tech market in the world under the framework of the 13th Five-Year Plan. China is also redirecting subsidy policies towards higher energy density and cobalt-rich EV batteries, which may well have a significant impact on the EV value chain.

CRU, a leading provider of analysis in the mining, metals and fertilizer markets, expects indeed that over 40% of the world’s pure EVs will be sold in China over the next five years. Global demand for critical battery minerals will thus be heavily influenced by changes in the battery mix.

Additionally a large share of China’s EV battery production is meant to be exported to overseas markets. Changes in EV subsidies and battery chemistries for domestic EVs will play a key role in lifting China’s total demand for refined cobalt units. CRU estimates that …

Link to full article on Seeking Alpha